Making Quick Decisions with Limited Data

During my recent talk at Microsoft, a program manager shared her frustration on having trouble making quick decisions with very limited data, say 10-20% of data. Her manager considers this ability is one of the major indicators of professional maturity. I agree with her manager. But how can one make quick decisions with very limited data?

The key is to become systematic in the decision making process. Summarize and build decision making models that take a few parameters. If you constructed many simulation models in the business world, you can change a few parameters and provide quick conclusions. Once these models become part of your thought process and part of your intuition, you can accelerate your decision making process significantly. Of course, you can always compare with incoming data and validate your conclusions again.

Observe the senior people around you as they face the same challenges. Find out how they come up with quick decisions and why they think the way they do. You will be able to learn and construct your models very quickly.


Understanding the precision of the decision/conclusion is also very important. In this fast changing world, you are expected to give an educated guess with 60-80% of accuracy instead of 99.9% of accuracy. It is simply okay to take a guess or give a quick conclusion. When you do that, add a disclaimer of your precision along with your conclusion.

How to Release Stress

Stress is caused by problems and issues. The best way to release stress is to write down your problems and issues, focus all your thinking and energy to discover the solution.

July Book: Leadership Passages

Leadership Passages: The Personal and Professional Transitions That Make or Break a Leader
by David Dotlich

This book is for senior executives who went through life change events. It is a easy read and provides interesting suggestions for anyone who are going through any dramatic life events, such as promotions, layoffs, new job, lost loved ones, starting a company, moving to foreign country to start a new career...

Publisher Comments:
Predict and Survive the Make-or-Break Crises You Will Face in the Course of Your Career
"Leadership Passages describes systematically that it is far more effective and compelling to build on both successes and failures, rather than trying to overlook or even ignore the valuable lessons that unavoidable adversity in both our personal and business lives can teach us."

–Daniel Vasella, chairman and CEO, Novartis

"If you want to succeed and have inner peace at the same time, then this book is for you."

–Ram Charan, coauthor, Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done

"Leadership Passages describes in direct, simple, and honest language how human beings become great leaders. Filled with wisdom, insight, and practical advice from three world-class coaches–reading this book is like attending and completing a senior-level leadership program, or spending a week with the best executive coach."

–Linda Clark-Santos, senior vice president, Talent & Organizational Capability of Washington Mutual

"Do careers stop when we are passed over, have a bad boss, or just blow it? Not according to this book. Great leaders pick themselves up and move on, learning while they go forward. Leadership Passages shows us how."

–Ken Blanchard, coauthor, The One Minute Manager® and The Secret

"This breakthrough book on leadership development is filled with practical advice on ways to lead others and ways to learn from your life as well as your career. We all know that experience is a teacher, but Dotlich, Noel, and Walker show us why!"

–Joe Berardino, vice chairman, Sciens Capital Management LLC, and former chairman and CEO, Andersen Worldwide